Climate change could have catastrophic health consequences, particularly for the poorest across the world. Or it could be the catalyst for accelerated progress against the deadliest infectious diseases. The outcome depends on us, and above all, on how swiftly we act to counter the human health impact of a warming planet.
The Global Fund has been fighting the deadliest infectious diseases for 20 years, investing over US$55 billion to deploy biomedical and other innovations to save over 50 million lives and dramatically reduce the infections and mortality from HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria. We also moved quickly to help countries respond to COVID-19, investing an additional $5 billion—making the Global Fund the largest provider of support to low- and middle-income countries for tests, treatments, oxygen, and personal protective equipment, so everything except vaccines.
Now climate change presents a new challenge. The Lancet Countdown report shows how the worsening impact of climate change is affecting the foundations of human health and well-being.
Climate change could be the catalyst for accelerated progress against the deadliest infectious diseases.
Malaria illustrates what’s at stake. One of the world’s oldest pandemics, malaria still kills over 600,000 people per year, mainly children under the age of five and pregnant women, almost all in the poorest and most marginalized communities.
Climate change is already changing the epidemiological dynamics of malaria. Warmer minimum temperatures mean mosquitos can survive in the highlands of Ethiopia, for example, exposing people in these areas to malaria for the first time. Extreme weather events, including cyclones and floods, trigger upsurges in malaria infections and deaths. After 2022’s devastating floods in Pakistan, malaria infections more than quadrupled.
Moreover, climate change isn’t the only thing making malaria more difficult to tackle. We’re seeing increasing mosquito resistance to existing insecticides and increasing parasite resistance to existing treatments. Conflict in many of the countries most affected by malaria is increasing costs and impeding access for the most vulnerable.
There’s a real risk that we could see all the gains of the last 20 years of fighting malaria reversed. There’s a huge overlap between the communities designated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as “highly vulnerable to effects of climate change” and those most heavily hit with malaria. In sub-Saharan Africa, floods have increased tenfold, severe storms have quadrupled, and droughts have tripled since the 1970s. The cyclone that just devastated Mozambique and Malawi will undoubtedly result in surging malaria infections.
On the other hand, we have an exciting flow of innovative tools to fight malaria, including dual active ingredient bed nets to counter resistance, new treatments and prophylactics, new diagnostic tools, and even vaccines.
One example of a highly cost-effective solution is seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC). For $1.50 per month, SMC can protect young children through the rainy season when they are most at risk. In 2021, nearly 45 million children were treated with SMC across 15 African countries. However, this could be extended to tens of millions more across many other countries.
Another example is the new dual active ingredient bed nets. These can be 40 percent more effective in preventing infections than the current generation of insecticide impregnated bed nets. Because they are more expensive, they are not being rolled out as fast as they could be. While a conventional bed net costs about $2.00, the new ones cost over 60 cents more. At 130 million bed nets distributed a year, that adds up.
If we continue as now, it’s highly likely that thousands more children will die from malaria every year as climate change fuels the spread of the disease, and resistance undermines the efficacy of the weapons we have to fight it. Yet this isn’t one of those problems where we must invent new solutions. We already have effective tools, with better ones on the way. We simply don’t have the money to use them.
We all share some responsibility for what’s happening to our planet. But if there’s anyone in the world who cannot be held accountable for the carbon emissions driving global warming, it’s young children in the poorest communities in the world. Yet they are the ones dying first as a consequence.
When we have the tools to prevent this, are we really going to stand by and watch it happen?